If Corruption Disappeared, Which Countries Would Still Be Poorest? - Development and Resilience Research Monitor

Updated using 2025 PPP-per-person data and the World Bank’s 2026 governance-indicator release.

Prepared for Development and Resilience Research Monitor (DRRM).

Seychelles is the central lens for this illustrative governance-catch-up scenario: it starts 61st and is 67th in the central scenario, a relative drop of 6 places among the 189 ranked countries. Mauritius moves from 67th to 68th (Down 1), while Maldives moves from 73rd to 69th (Up 4). These are GDP-per-person PPP ranks—not total GDP or household income—and the outputs are illustrative model results, not forecasts. A relative rank drop does not mean baseline income falls; it can mean that other countries gain more.

In plain language, Seychelles remains a relatively prosperous small island state in this comparison, but it is overtaken in the modeled ordering as some countries receive larger governance-linked uplifts. Mauritius is nearly unchanged, while Maldives moves up. For small island developing states (SIDS), this is a useful global comparison of relative position, not a claim that geography, living standards or household circumstances suddenly change.

Among the 189 countries that can be ranked on comparable 2025 inputs, Burundi and the Central African Republic remain the two poorest in the scenario. South Sudan is third from the bottom. At the other end, Liechtenstein, Singapore and Luxembourg lead the scenario’s per-person ranking.

The biggest upward move is Russia, which rises 26 places, from 46th to 20th. Türkiye climbs 14 places. Turkmenistan and Libya rise 13 each. These are hypothetical rank changes, not predictions that those countries will earn a specific amount more.

The complete 195-country table lists each country’s baseline and scenario rank, movement, governance inputs, GDP source and resource-rent data. It also includes two alternate uplift assumptions. Six countries are marked unranked rather than assigned invented values.

The scenario’s richest and poorest

The model ranks GDP per person adjusted for purchasing power, not total national GDP. Its richest ten are Liechtenstein, Singapore, Luxembourg, Ireland, Qatar, Guyana, Norway, Brunei Darussalam, Switzerland and the United States. Guyana moves from eighth to sixth; the others change little. [3] [4] [5] [7]

The poorest ten in the scenario are Burundi (189th), the Central African Republic (188th), South Sudan (187th), Mozambique (186th), Malawi (185th), Yemen (184th), Somalia (183rd), Madagascar (182nd), Liberia (181st) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (180th). The model lifts incomes for some countries, but it does not assume that better governance instantly erases conflict, infrastructure gaps, health burdens or other barriers to development.

The ranking is about average economic output per person measured using purchasing-power-parity (PPP) GDP per person. It is not total GDP and does not show household income, inequality, household wealth or how much of national income reaches ordinary people.

Which countries move most?

Ranks run from 1 (highest GDP per person) to 189 (lowest). A plus sign means moving toward the richer end of the table.

Country	Current → scenario rank	Movement
Russia	46 → 20	+26
Türkiye	49 → 35	+14
Turkmenistan	88 → 75	+13
Libya	105 → 92	+13
Bahrain	24 → 12	+12
Belarus	64 → 52	+12
Kuwait	38 → 27	+11
Iran	96 → 85	+11
Venezuela	133 → 122	+11
Equatorial Guinea	107 → 97	+10

Ten ranked countries rise at least ten places in the central scenario; twelve fall at least ten. The largest falls are New Zealand and Palau (13 places each), followed by the United Kingdom, Japan, Estonia, Barbados, Bhutan and Samoa (12 each). A country can fall in relative rank because others gain ground; the model does not reduce its baseline GDP.

Several of the upward movers have substantial resource sectors. The World Bank’s latest broad-coverage resource-rent data are for 2021: rents were about 34% of GDP in Guyana, 43% in Iraq and 61% in Libya. The measure includes oil, gas, coal, minerals and forest rents. It is not a tally of reserves or future potential. [16]

Those figures are context, not a bonus in the scenario formula. The model does not assume new discoveries or calculate the value of untapped reserves. Turning resource wealth into lasting public benefit depends on how governments award contracts, collect royalties and taxes, and invest the proceeds. [17]

How to read the “no corruption” scenario

The World Bank’s WGI 2026 estimates-and-scores file was updated on September 18, 2026 and covers 1996–2025. The release recalculates its historical estimates under a revised methodology. I use its 2025 estimates for Control of Corruption, Rule of Law and Government Effectiveness. [8] [9] [12] WGI draws on perception data from surveys and expert assessments. It measures broad governance conditions, not the number of corrupt transactions or a precise dollar cost of corruption. [9] [10]

For this thought experiment, I take an equal-weight average of those three standard-normal estimates. [10] [13] [14] [15] The 90th-percentile value of that average among the 189 rankable countries is 1.351. This is a modeling convenience, not an official WGI composite. The World Bank cautions that its dimensions should not be collapsed into one overall governance score. [11]

The central scenario multiplies baseline GDP per person by 1 + 0.25 × max(0, 1.351 − governance composite). In plain language, countries below the benchmark get a modeled 25% uplift per governance-estimate point of gap, pro-rated for fractions; those already above it receive no uplift. This assumption is not estimated from causal evidence. It is an illustrative way to turn a hypothetical into rank movements, not a prediction of what would happen in a corruption-free world.

The result depends strongly on that chosen uplift. At 15% per point, one country rises ten or more places and two fall that far. At 30%, fourteen rise ten or more and eighteen fall. The central assumption produces ten large upward movements and twelve large downward movements. The exact positions are therefore less dependable than the broad point that countries with weak governance and room for improvement may gain ground.

What the 2025 data can and cannot rank

The table covers the 193 UN member states plus the Holy See and the State of Palestine, the two non-member observer states. [1] [2] The World Bank’s 2025 GDP-per-person PPP series has values for 180 of these countries. I use same-year 2025 IMF WEO PPP-per-person values as a clearly labeled fallback for nine more: Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, San Marino, South Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and Yemen. The State of Palestine has a World Bank value but no IMF value in this series. [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]

The two sources report PPP GDP per person in current international dollars, but their estimates are not identical. The table marks each country’s GDP source so IMF fallbacks are visible. The WGI 2026 release has 2025 estimates for 194 of the 195 countries in this table; the Holy See has no WGI estimates in the series. [8]

Six countries still have no comparable 2025 PPP figure in either selected GDP source: Cuba, Eritrea, the Holy See, Monaco, North Korea and Syria. Eritrea’s latest IMF PPP-per-person observation is from 2019; Syria’s latest World Bank observation is from 2022. These older values appear as context in the table but do not determine a 2025 rank. The IMF says it does not monitor Cuba or North Korea because they are not IMF members. The selected datasets do not provide a comparable 2025 PPP series for Monaco or the Holy See. [3] [7] [18]

For the Holy See, the gap is broader: it also has no WGI estimate for 2025. For the other five, WGI estimates are present, but without a comparable 2025 PPP-per-person baseline there is no honest rank movement to calculate. “Unranked” is more accurate than borrowing a neighboring country’s value or mixing years.

Complete country ranking table

Rank 1 is the highest PPP GDP per person in the table; larger rank numbers are farther toward the poorest end. “Places up/down” compares the baseline rank with the central scenario rank (scenario_rank_p25).

Country	Baseline rank	Central scenario rank	Places up/down
Liechtenstein	1	1	No change
Singapore	2	2	No change
Luxembourg	3	3	No change
Ireland	4	4	No change
Qatar	5	5	No change
Guyana	8	6	Up 2
Norway	6	7	Down 1
Brunei Darussalam	9	8	Up 1
Switzerland	7	9	Down 2
United States	10	10	No change
United Arab Emirates	12	11	Up 1
Bahrain	24	12	Up 12
San Marino	13	13	No change
Saudi Arabia	20	14	Up 6
Netherlands	11	15	Down 4
Malta	22	16	Up 6
Iceland	14	17	Down 3
Denmark	15	18	Down 3
Andorra	16	19	Down 3
Russia	46	20	Up 26
Austria	17	21	Down 4
Germany	18	22	Down 4
Belgium	19	23	Down 4
Cyprus	28	24	Up 4
Italy	31	25	Up 6
Sweden	21	26	Down 5
Kuwait	38	27	Up 11
Australia	23	28	Down 5
France	29	29	No change
Spain	33	30	Up 3
Canada	25	31	Down 6
Slovenia	35	32	Up 3
Finland	26	33	Down 7
Israel	34	34	No change
Türkiye	49	35	Up 14
South Korea	30	36	Down 6
Romania	44	37	Up 7
Czechia	32	38	Down 6
United Kingdom	27	39	Down 12
Hungary	45	40	Up 5
Poland	40	41	Down 1
Croatia	43	42	Up 1
Slovakia	47	43	Up 4
Kazakhstan	53	44	Up 9
Panama	54	45	Up 9
Bulgaria	52	46	Up 6
Lithuania	37	47	Down 10
Portugal	41	48	Down 7
New Zealand	36	49	Down 13
Greece	50	50	No change
Japan	39	51	Down 12
Belarus	64	52	Up 12
Bahamas	51	53	Down 2
Estonia	42	54	Down 12
Oman	55	55	No change
Latvia	48	56	Down 8
Trinidad and Tobago	59	57	Up 2
Malaysia	56	58	Down 2
Serbia	65	59	Up 6
Montenegro	63	60	Up 3
St. Kitts and Nevis	60	61	Down 1
Argentina	68	62	Up 6
Antigua and Barbuda	62	63	Down 1
Chile	58	64	Down 6
Uruguay	57	65	Down 8
Costa Rica	66	66	No change
Seychelles	61	67	Down 6
Mauritius	67	68	Down 1
Maldives	73	69	Up 4
Mexico	79	70	Up 9
Georgia	69	71	Down 2
Dominican Republic	71	72	Down 1
China	70	73	Down 3
North Macedonia	75	74	Up 1
Turkmenistan	88	75	Up 13
Albania	74	76	Down 2
Azerbaijan	77	77	No change
Bosnia and Herzegovina	80	78	Up 2
Thailand	76	79	Down 3
St. Lucia	72	80	Down 8
Gabon	89	81	Up 8
Armenia	81	82	Down 1
Brazil	82	83	Down 1
Colombia	87	84	Up 3
Iran	96	85	Up 11
Suriname	86	86	No change
Paraguay	94	87	Up 7
Egypt	93	88	Up 5
Mongolia	91	89	Up 2
Barbados	78	90	Down 12
Ukraine	98	91	Up 7
Libya	105	92	Up 13
Dominica	85	93	Down 8
Peru	99	94	Up 5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	84	95	Down 11
Palau	83	96	Down 13
Equatorial Guinea	107	97	Up 10
Moldova	95	98	Down 3
Algeria	100	99	Up 1
Grenada	90	100	Down 10
Botswana	92	101	Down 9
Ecuador	104	102	Up 2
Indonesia	102	103	Down 1
Vietnam	101	104	Down 3
Guatemala	110	105	Up 5
Sri Lanka	103	106	Down 3
Iraq	112	107	Up 5
Tunisia	109	108	Up 1
Bhutan	97	109	Down 12
South Africa	108	110	Down 2
Belize	111	111	No change
El Salvador	114	112	Up 2
Bolivia	117	113	Up 4
Uzbekistan	115	114	Up 1
Fiji	106	115	Down 9
Lebanon	123	116	Up 7
Eswatini	120	117	Up 3
Nauru	113	118	Down 5
Philippines	119	119	No change
Jamaica	116	120	Down 4
Jordan	118	121	Down 3
Venezuela	133	122	Up 11
Angola	127	123	Up 4
Laos	126	124	Up 2
India	124	125	Down 1
Bangladesh	128	126	Up 2
Morocco	125	127	Down 2
Namibia	122	128	Down 6
Nicaragua	131	129	Up 2
Nigeria	129	130	Down 1
Kyrgyzstan	132	131	Up 1
Cabo Verde	121	132	Down 11
Cambodia	137	133	Up 4
Djibouti	138	134	Up 4
Honduras	140	135	Up 5
Republic of the Congo	142	136	Up 6
Mauritania	141	137	Up 4
Côte d’Ivoire	139	138	Up 1
Ghana	136	139	Down 3
Tonga	135	140	Down 5
Marshall Islands	134	141	Down 7
Samoa	130	142	Down 12
Zimbabwe	146	143	Up 3
Myanmar	149	144	Up 5
Pakistan	145	145	No change
Kenya	143	146	Down 3
Tajikistan	150	147	Up 3
Cameroon	151	148	Up 3
Nepal	148	149	Down 1
Sao Tome and Principe	147	150	Down 3
Tuvalu	144	151	Down 7
Guinea	155	152	Up 3
State of Palestine	154	153	Up 1
Papua New Guinea	153	154	Down 1
Senegal	152	155	Down 3
Timor-Leste	157	156	Up 1
Benin	156	157	Down 1
Comoros	162	158	Up 4
Tanzania	160	159	Up 1
Zambia	161	160	Up 1
Vanuatu	159	161	Down 2
Togo	164	162	Up 2
Sierra Leone	166	163	Up 3
Mali	169	164	Up 5
Micronesia	158	165	Down 7
Haiti	173	166	Up 7
Guinea-Bissau	171	167	Up 4
Ethiopia	168	168	No change
Gambia	167	169	Down 2
Uganda	170	170	No change
Rwanda	163	171	Down 8
Kiribati	165	172	Down 7
Chad	175	173	Up 2
Lesotho	172	174	Down 2
Burkina Faso	174	175	Down 1
Afghanistan	177	176	Up 1
Solomon Islands	176	177	Down 1
Sudan	178	178	No change
Niger	179	179	No change
Democratic Republic of the Congo	182	180	Up 2
Liberia	180	181	Down 1
Madagascar	181	182	Down 1
Somalia	185	183	Up 2
Yemen	186	184	Up 2
Malawi	183	185	Down 2
Mozambique	184	186	Down 2
South Sudan	187	187	No change
Central African Republic	188	188	No change
Burundi	189	189	No change
Cuba	Unranked	Unranked	Not applicable
Eritrea	Unranked	Unranked	Not applicable
Holy See	Unranked	Unranked	Not applicable
Monaco	Unranked	Unranked	Not applicable
North Korea	Unranked	Unranked	Not applicable
Syria	Unranked	Unranked	Not applicable

The scenario’s richest and poorest

Which countries move most?

How to read the “no corruption” scenario

What the 2025 data can and cannot rank

Complete country ranking table

References